This report explores the potential trajectories of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation up to 2050, emphasizing this fragmentation’s impact on global trade and supply chains and on food security. Using a set of global scenarios called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, three plausible storylines for geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation are developed:

1. Securitized supply chains portrays a fragmented world in which states prioritize national security and operate through heavily secured and, in some cases, militarized supply chains.
2. Resource clubs illustrates a world divided between a small number of transnational alliances based on shared politics, with exclusive trade agreements among members.
3. Regional islands depicts a future in which scattered and isolated geographically bound clusters of countries emerge, relying on localized trade and resource management.

These three scenarios illustrate how escalating rivalries, the collapse of globalization and the decline of multilateral institutions could reshape international relations and economic landscapes. Policymakers can use these scenarios to prioritize strategies that address vulnerabilities in food systems and trade networks; and enhance resilience in the face of fragmentation and exacerbating climate risks.