As a new administration prepares to take office in the United States, NATO Allies confront an increasingly complex set of threats and crises, increasingly interconnected through the destabilising role of, and growing collaboration between authoritarian regimes in Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. This year’s Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum thus conveyed a particular sense of urgency and highlighted the importance of further strengthening NATO at this critical time. 

Co-hosted by the US National Defense University (NDU) and the Atlantic Council, this year’s edition of the Forum – a flagship yearly event dedicated to the US leadership in the Alliance and the importance of the transatlantic bond – brought together 88 members of parliament from 27 nations for a series of exchanges with US government officials and top experts. The anticipated foreign and security priorities and policies of the incoming Trump administration framed much of the discussion. 

Over the course of two days at the NDU and a third day at the Allied Command Transformation (ACT) in Norfolk, Virginia, successive panels and presenters addressed Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine and the need for continued mobilisation in support of Ukraine, an increasingly unstable Middle East punctuated by the revolution in Syria and the war in Gaza and Lebanon, the challenge presented by China in the Indo-Pacific, attacks against democratic values, and the need to continually innovate and invest in order to maintain NATO’s technological edge. Just as the war in Ukraine has linked Russia with China, Iran and now North Korea into a more complex international confrontation, the wider issues considered at the Forum are interconnected as well. 

The Forum also reviewed how the substantial progress made by NATO to confront such challenges showcases the Alliance’s adaptability, resolve, and unity. In 2024, NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary, welcomed Sweden to the Alliance, saw the number of members fulfilling their commitment to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence rise to 23, and demonstrated remarkable political and diplomatic cohesion in its support for Ukraine, among other important steps forward. 

Speakers and participants at the Forum repeatedly emphasised the centrality of a positive outcome in Ukraine for global security. It is important for multiple, linked reasons. Most prominently, Russia’s objective in the war extends beyond Ukraine; it aims to break the resolve of NATO, the EU and the West, and in this process, it has drawn in a host of partners (China, Iran, North Korea). They have raised the stakes to an international level in which autocracies are pushing to bring down the international rules-based order and undermine democracies around the world. As events between regions become more interconnected, what happens in Ukraine is being watched well beyond Europe. Ukraine is effectively a frontline for future IndoPacific challenges, conflicts in the Middle East, and the durability of democratic values. 

Forum sessions also mapped out the requirements for success in Ukraine and in the face of heightened security tests. While NATO Allies have made much progress recently in reaching their commitments to spend 2% of GDP on defence, a recurrent theme of the Forum was the fact that 2% is no longer sufficient and that 3% or even 3.5% of GDP must soon become the new target. Participants heard that the need for higher investment in defence will be a major focus of the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, and that it will be a top priority for the incoming Trump Administration. 

Closely linked to increased defence spending, another crucial element for success repeated throughout the Forum is a strategic focus on an expanded and much more robust defence industrial capacity. Allocating more money for defence is meaningless if it does not translate into significantly more industrial output and new capabilities. And that output needs to be much more strategically coordinated and harmonised to enhance interoperability, to expand on the comparative strengths of particular Allies, and to avoid wasteful duplication. 

Success also means recognising that Russia and its collaborators are already engaged in a hybrid war with the Alliance, particularly through disinformation and cyber attacks. An important factor in this recognition means shifting beyond enhancing capacity to deny such threats through greater societal resilience, information campaigns and security technology to concerted policies of investing in and carrying out deterrence through punishment. In other words, hybrid attacks must be met with painful and tangible responses. 

The parliamentary delegations also heard the specific ways in which they can directly contribute to better security outcomes for the Alliance. Most broadly, they have a powerful capacity to educate their constituencies about the seriousness of the threats their countries face and the need to support more robust defence policies, some of which may entail difficult financial and societal trade-offs. They also have the power to shape and pass legislation that will provide for a legal framework that facilitates more effective investments in defence and societal resilience. 

The Forum balanced its focus on the growing threat environment by noting gains that had been made over the past year to address such challenges and other positive developments. Underlying the progress on 23 NATO Allies now meeting the 2% GDP commitment is the biggest increase in defence expenditure by European Allies and Canada in decades – 18%. These Allies are investing a combined total of more than USD 430 billion in defence in 2024. The addition of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance goes well beyond symbolism or a mere numeric increase; such inclusion brings a host of unique, comparative capabilities that go beyond a simple increase in membership. And as NATO celebrated 75 years as an alliance last July, it could look back and see how its adaptable, resolute and united response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine rests on decades of institutional strength stretching all the way back to the democratic roots of the Alliance, starting with the Washington Treaty. 

Among the favourable indicators examined, this year’s Ojars Eriks Kalnins Memorial Lecture focused on the fact that, while Russia presents a clear threat, it is not as strong as it is often perceived. The question is not whether this neo-feudal system full of weaknesses will collapse, but when. Economics is its biggest weakness. Russia is only growing at 1%. It tries to fake growth through hidden inflation. While officially inflation in Russia stands at 9%, interest rates in the country amount to 29%. Russia is also quickly running out of foreign reserves. The Russian GDP is approximately $9 trillion, while the collective GDP of the West is well more than five times that. Russia cannot outspend the West. The annual Kalnins lecture is dedicated to the late NATO PA Vice-President and Head of the Latvian delegation, whose life’s work embodied the vitality of the transatlantic link. 

With the Presidential administration in the US set to change in January 2025 after a year of consequential elections in Europe, the state of the transatlantic relationship was front and centre in discussions between European lawmakers and their counterparts from the US House of Representatives, who pointed to continued strong bipartisan political commitment to the Alliance, the transatlantic link as well as support to Ukraine. 

On the margins of the Forum, the NATO PA leadership engaged with NATO officials and experts on NATO’s future strategic approach to Russia. 

In Norfolk, the delegation engaged with the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, French Admiral Pierre Vandier, and other military leaders at ACT and at Joint Force Command Norfolk – NATO’s latest joint operational-level headquarters, activated in 2019 and placed under NATO’s integrated command structure in 2024. The delegation also toured the USS Richard M. McCool, Jr. (LPD 29), which is the newest Antonio-class amphibious transport dock to be commissioned by the US Navy at Naval Station Norfolk. 

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Photos of the Forum © NATOPA