John Thwaites remembers the exact moment he understood that the fight against global warming had to radically change. 

It was 2012, and he was in the Climateworks Melbourne office, listening to a talk by leading climate scientist Malte Meinshausen. 

The link between carbon dioxide emissions and temperature rise was well known. But Malte explained that because carbon dioxide hung around in the air for a long time, only a finite amount could be emitted before temperatures reached dangerous tipping points beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

In other words, the world had a carbon budget. It wasn’t just annual emissions that mattered, it was the total stock.

Secondly, the world had only until 2050 to reach net zero emissions, after which time the budget would be spent. Carbon levels, temperatures and time were all connected. Scientists knew this but policymakers and the public did not. 

‘It was our lightbulb moment,’ says John, chair of Climateworks. ‘Every last tonne of carbon in the atmosphere matters. Everything we did from then on had to focus on getting to net zero.’

In 2024 Climateworks Centre, formerly ClimateWorks Australia, celebrates its 15^th birthday.

In a time of successes and setbacks for the climate movement, Climateworks has raised awareness and shifted policy in Australia and overseas. It helped to shape the 2015 Paris Agreement, which remains the basis of global climate action today. It has changed in response to the times, but never lost sight of its identity and mission.   

Climateworks is nonpartisan and highly collaborative. Its work is grounded in rigorous use of data and modelling. It tells stories that emerge from the data in a clear, compelling way. It works with governments of all stripes, and with business and non-government organisations, to produce practical pathways for achieving ambitious change. It bridges the gap between climate research and action.

Beyond these ways of working is the intangible Climateworks factor: a stubborn optimism that humanity can solve this vexed problem.

As CEO Anna Skarbek says:

‘I’ve always believed that if you’re concerned about something, you get up and do something about it.’ 

‘The analysis that Climateworks provides is scintillating,’ says leading economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Sustainable Development Centre at New York’s Columbia University. ‘It is so clear, important and persuasive, that it is opening minds, changing government policy, and making a worldwide contribution.’ 

That contribution began nearly 20 years ago, with a couple and their kids sitting around a kitchen table.

David and Maree Shelmerdine, members of the Myer family, well known for its philanthropy, were talking with their five children, aged six to 26, about ways to mark two coming milestones: 75 years of the Sidney Myer Fund and 50 years of the Myer Foundation, both in 2009. 

At the time, awareness of climate change was growing. Former US vice-president Al Gore had called it ‘the great moral challenge’ for a generation. 

One of the foundation’s most successful projects was ScienceWorks, David and Maree reflected. In this Melbourne museum, kids learn about science while tumbling around in a moon module, making a T-Rex from plasticine, or testing their speed against the world’s best sprinters. What about a similar building to educate young people about climate change by immersing them in its physical realities?

But a comprehensive feasibility study into how philanthropy could best support climate action led the foundation to shift focus.

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John Thwaites, inaugural chair of the Monash Sustainability Institute, now Monash Sustainable Development Institute, told David that when he had been a minister in the Victorian Government he had rarely seen university research influence government. No matter how good it was, it rarely shaped policy action or public debate. 

That idea provided an opening. After a highly competitive tender, a $4.6 million Myer Foundation grant saw Climateworks established at the Monash Sustainability Institute, with two desks and two employees: CEO Anna Skarbek and project manager Meg Argyriou.

Anna had been a lawyer, a banker, a ministerial adviser to John Thwaites, and an investment manager at Climate Change Capital in London. ‘She had a pedigree that made her a really good fit for the job,’ David says. 

‘We could see that she had an extraordinary gift for grasping an issue, distilling it, then describing it in a very clear, intelligent and short way.’

A second early decision was also important in establishing Climateworks. Two seats on the board were set aside for representatives of the Myer Foundation. 

Universities like to keep governance of their institutions in-house, but Monash accepted the argument that outside voices on the board would strengthen the new organisation’s policy focus. It would also give the foundation ‘skin in the game,’ says John, who became board chair, with David as his deputy.

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In September 2009 Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard launched Climateworks.

These early reports set out changes organisations could make to cut emissions at the lowest possible cost without upending existing practices in most sectors. The approach was both conceptual and grounded in physical realities. Something of the ScienceWorks idea had survived. 

Over time, a Climateworks model emerged.

The organisation works at global, national, state and local levels. It builds long-term partnerships so that business and government trust it as an ongoing source of high-quality, practical advice. Its reports are not written to sit on a shelf but to be the first draft of a change agenda.

Crucially, Climateworks is nonpartisan. Getting off fossil fuels, an energy source that has powered economic growth for two centuries, is a vast undertaking. If climate action is seen as a partisan issue, it will fail. The hard work of changing every human activity needs the involvement of everyone. 

Former Liberal Environment Minister Robert Hill has been a director, as has Labor Attorney-General, Mark Dreyfus, and the Governor-General, Sam Mostyn. Anna’s external roles include sitting on the advisory board of the Australian Government’s Net Zero Economy Agency and the board of Blueprint, a ‘socially progressive and economically conservative’ climate think tank.

Amandine was not alone in mistaking the size of the challenge at that time. Even when he was Australia’s first Minister for Climate Change in the Victorian Government, John Thwaites had thought the problem could be solved through incremental reforms, bringing down emission levels year on year. 

Then came that conversation with Malte Meinshausen in 2012.

The first was greater energy efficiency. The International Energy Agency has said that energy efficiencies can achieve about 40 per cent of emissions reductions to keep global warming below two degrees. John likens energy efficiencies to ‘$5 notes on the ground that people don’t pick up.’  

The second pillar was zero-carbon electricity based mostly on renewable energy, where Australia has better options than most countries. The third was electrification, such as switching from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, and other fuel shifts to low-carbon alternatives such as advanced biofuels. The fourth was sequestration of carbon in soil and forests.

Crucially, the report found that Australia could get to net zero while maintaining strong economic growth. Of the 15 countries involved in the project, only Australia committed from the start to reaching net zero by 2050. The others focused on achieving an 80 per cent emissions reduction, yet many later followed Australia’s lead and increased their ambition to net zero.

The Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in 2050 report provided ‘the clearest roadmap to achieving a low-carbon future that I’ve seen,’ said Professor Alan Finkel, Chief Scientist from 2016 to 2020. 

Others agreed. Before the 2015 UN climate conference in Paris, Jeffrey Sachs showed the 15 country reports to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. That evidence had a significant impact on the outcomes of the Paris conference and the global adoption of the net zero emissions objective.

Today net zero is a household term, but just how new it was in 2015 is shown by the fact that it does not appear in the conference accords. Nevertheless, the idea is clear in what Anna identifies as the big three changes to emerge from Paris.

First, global temperatures had to be kept well under 2°C, striving for 1.5°C. 

Second, national plans were needed to keep the stock of carbon in the atmosphere at a level that would not produce higher temperatures. Specifically, that meant that in the second half of this century, greenhouse gas emissions and removals of these emissions from the atmosphere would have to balance. 

Third, every five years countries would submit plans, known as nationally determined contributions, to show how they were meeting the pledges they made in Paris. 

These commitments ‘lock countries in,’ Anna says. ‘They set up a global architecture, based fully in the science.’

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Two other big changes at Climateworks emerged from the decarbonisation project and the Paris conference. The first was a new Climateworks philosophy called backcasting, which means starting with the future goal and working backwards on ways to achieve it. 

In other words, if net zero emissions is not negotiable, how does a nation, state or company change its policies and ways of working today to ensure it hits that target in 2050, and interim targets along the way? 

Backcasting has taken the work of Climateworks far beyond incrementalism. For example, if the goal is simply to reduce emissions in the short term, a country or company might switch to using gas, because it emits less than coal. 

But over the long-term, the installed gas infrastructure will be hard to remove, thereby creating a big obstacle to achieving net zero by 2050. A more holistic and far-sighted approach is required. 

The second change was one of the biggest Climateworks has made: its move into Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia.

A big advocate for this idea was Climateworks board member Howard Bamsey, Australia’s former Special Envoy on Climate Change. Indonesia comprises nearly 280 million people, and presented a large opportunity for action, based on bringing together climate and development expertise. 

The Climateworks Jakarta office is led by Guntur Sutiyono, a former analyst at the Climate Policy Initiative, the World Bank, and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance. 

Guntur says he was keen to work at Climateworks.

‘It has the right ambition: to save the planet. We’re racing against time and we can’t afford to be modest.’

Climateworks offered credible decarbonisation pathways and it fostered local leaders, both important for a country where ‘relationships and influence play a key role.’

Climateworks built a strong relationship with the Ministry of Planning as the ministry worked on the country’s Low Carbon Development Initiative, released in 2017. 

Indonesian government modelling, supported by Climateworks, showed that Indonesia could get to net zero by 2045, not 2070, as some other models had it. Moreover, greener development would improve Indonesia’s rate of economic growth. For example, a switch to electric vehicles would reduce the severe health costs of air pollution. 

Indonesia is also the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, and does not have good conditions for solar or onshore wind. Deforestation of peatlands for palm oil production releases huge amounts of methane. The national government has worked hard to reduce these emissions, but they still occur. Leaders often have to choose between funding climate solutions and building roads or schools.

Yet the energy transition also brings opportunities as well as challenges. Indonesia has the world’s largest reserves of nickel, which is essential for making EV batteries. Mining nickel carries the risk of significant environmental and social harms, yet decision-makers know that relying too much on fossil fuel exports in a decarbonising world puts economies at risk, as demand for zero-emissions goods and services rises. 

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This approach has built trust across the political spectrum. In 2015 the Coalition Government under Tony Abbott cited the Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in 2050 report as a key reference when it submitted its first national plan after the Paris Agreement. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten did the same when he committed Labor to a net zero target.

Cynicism is widespread about far-off emissions targets, the proliferation of global conferences, plans and pledges, so many words on paper. But Anna is adamant that these initiatives, while nowhere near enough to address the problem, matter immensely. 

She believes that as minds change, actions and laws follow, and they in turn change minds. 

Of course, some countries and companies are simply kicking the can down the road. But commitments and targets hold nations, companies, organisations and leaders to account. 

For example, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the industry regulator, is now taking finance companies that make false sustainability claims to court. 

‘Companies know that if they greenwash, they’ll be sued,’ Anna says.

‘They know they can’t hide the problem, so let’s solve the problem. And it turns out, the more you look the more you solve. We have innovations in industry and corporate practice every year.’ 

Climateworks research consistently shows that the solutions to climate change have already been invented; the key is getting them adopted through innovation in government policy and in the private sector.

Net zero is now the goal of nearly half of ASX200 companies and financial institutions that hold at least half the world’s privately managed money, Anna says. ‘They have recognised that net zero is here to stay and that the planet isn’t safe until we achieve it.’

But time is pressing hard. Anna and John were in New York in 2019 when scientists from the IPCC presented evidence showing that ecosystem tipping points were likely to be triggered at 1.5°C, while 2°C would cause potentially irreparable harm. A lower temperature goal meant a smaller carbon budget and fewer years emitting. ‘It chops off a decade,’ Anna says.

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Back in Melbourne, she and her team got to work, partnering with the CSIRO to put new parameters into their shared models. They found that with the right policies, Australia could do its share in achieving 1.5°C  by getting to net zero by 2039. 

The 2020 Decarbonisation Futures report and 2023 update, built on that modelling, lays down a credible pathway for policymakers to take. Now it is up to them – and all of us. 

The reasons to be optimistic are getting stronger.

The tumbling cost of renewable energy is a game changer, making coal-fired electricity increasingly unprofitable in the National Electricity Market (NEM), and foreshadowing the replacement of gas and much oil. Cheaper batteries open the door to faster uptake of EVs and electrification of all transport. Energy efficiency remains ‘a stealthy superpower at our disposal,’ writes Anna. 

What were once mainly the dreams of climate advocates are now becoming big business and settled government policy.

As more wind and solar farms, hydro projects and big batteries are installed, the share of electrical power supplied by renewables has shot up from just 17 per cent seven years ago to 39 per cent across the NEM today. 

Australia’s electricity roadmap makes this budding transformation clear: ‘Renewable energy connected by transmission, firmed with (battery) storage and backed up by gas is the lowest cost way to supply electricity to homes and businesses through Australia’s energy transition,’ says the Australian Energy Market Operator in its 2024 Draft Integrated System Plan. That transition, it adds, is ‘already well underway.’

The challenges change, but the ambition, optimism and imagination of Climateworks remain. 

‘Imagine a prosperous net zero society 30 years from now,’ Anna writes. ‘Huge industrial regions feature battery blocks, not exhaust stacks. Cities hum, more quietly than today, with electric vehicles. Homes are warmed and cooled by the power of the sun, and we breathe fresh air.

‘Once we put ourselves in that future, and look around at the infrastructure and relationships needed to create it, the rest of the equation can – and I believe will – be solved.’

Building that future is the Climateworks mission. ‘We are a permanent part of achieving climate progress in Australia,’ says Anna. ‘After 15 years in operation, we have momentum. We’ve got net zero commitments by governments and the private sector – now we have to get them implemented. 

‘Our north star is high ambition – showing what is possible – wedded to practical knowledge translated into lasting action. We are still in a race against time, but it is clear now that it is a race most humans want to win.’

It has been a long journey from that kitchen table conversation nearly 20 years ago. David Shelmerdine says that of all the initiatives the Myer Foundation has funded, Climateworks is by far the one of which he is most proud. 

‘We’ve ridden that roller coaster of political division and uncertainty, disappointment and hope,’ David says. ‘But we’ve stuck to our mission. And we always will.’ 

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About the author

This piece was written and reported by James Button, a former speechwriter, journalist and Europe correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald. He is the author of Speechless: A Year in My Father’s Business and Comeback: The Fall and Rise of Geelong and has won three Walkley awards and a Melbourne Press Club Quill for feature writing.

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‘We are still in a race against time on climate impacts, and while the fear of those harms drives us, so too does the sense of opportunity – it is more clear than ever that this is a race we want to win. Please continue with us on this journey and help us all win. We need you as much in the next 15 years as we did in our first 15.’ 

– Anna Skarbek

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