Minnesota’s budget and economic outlook remains stable in the current biennium, but a significant structural imbalance constrained the budget outlook in FY 2026-27. The current FY 2024-25 surplus is projected to be $2.4 billion, up $808 million from the end-of-session estimate. Higher expected consumer spending and corporate profit growth raise the FY 2024-25 tax revenue forecast. The near-term U.S. economic outlook has improved since February, driven by stronger than expected consumer spending, business investment, and employment. Higher estimates in health and human services and education raise total spending in FY 2024-2027, resulting in a negative structural balance in the next biennium.

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