by Michele Lenza, Inés Moutachaker and Joan Paredes[1] Inflation forecasts and their risks are central to monetary policy decisions. The strategy review concluded in 2021[2] highlighted that most Eurosystem models used to forecast inflation are linear. …
By Matteo Ciccarelli, Friderike Kuik and Catalina Martínez Hernández[1] Climate change has implications for price stability and the work of central banks. For instance, it may increase the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation, and hotter summers may …
by Christian Kubitza[1] On the basis of insurance companies’ bond investments, I examine how shifts in investors’ demand for corporate bonds affect non-financial bond issuers. When demand for their bonds increases, firms’ financing costs decrease, which …
by Maria Cecilia Bustamante and Francesca Zucchi[1] Regulation to control carbon emissions forces firms to think hard about their optimal policy for carbon management. We set out a unified approach to studying the trade-offs posed by carbon pricing for …
by Johannes Breckenfelder and Marie Hoerova[1] Using runs on mutual funds in March 2020 as a laboratory, this article examines central bank interventions that can help alleviate a liquidity crisis in the non-bank financial sector, given that non-banks do …
by Ernest Dautović, Leonardo Gambacorta and Alessio Reghezza[1] ECB Banking Supervision’s recommendation for banks not to pay out dividends during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to increased lending to non-financial corporations. Complying banks’ …
by Teresa Messner, Fabio Rumler and Georg Strasser[1] This article examines price differences across a national border where most factors commonly used to explain international price differences are absent. While some products cost the same on both sides …
by Laura Lebastard and Roberta Serafini[1] In this article we assess the impact of the pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) on exporting firms. To this end, we use a rich dataset at the firm-product-partner country level for …
by Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny and Justus Meyer[1] In this article we exploit the richness and flexible design of the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to explore in detail recent changes in consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations. The …
by Tilman Bletzinger, William Greif, and Bernd Schwaab[1] Modern financial systems rely on safe assets. A “safe asset” is defined by three characteristics (Brunnermeier et al., 2016, 2017, Brunnermeier and Huang, 2018, Gorton and Ordonez, 2022). First, it …
