7 January 2025

Compared with October 2024:

• median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months increased, as did consumer inflation expectations for three years ahead, while expectations for the next 12 months edged up;
• expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased;
• expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased;
• expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased slightly, while expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased in November to 3.4%, from 3.2% in October. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged up for the second month in a row, to 2.6% from 2.5%. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead also increased in November, to 2.4% – a level last recorded in July 2024 – from 2.1% in October. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons thus remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at its lowest level since February 2022. While the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, expectations for lower income quintiles were slightly above those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and 55-70), albeit to a lesser degree than in previous years. (Inflation results)

Income and consumption

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.1% in November. Looking at a breakdown by income group, all but the two highest income brackets lowered their nominal income growth expectations. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.2%, from 5.0% in October. Moreover, expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased further to 3.5%, the highest level since April 2024, from 3.3% in October and 3.2% in September. The September figure was the lowest reading since February 2022. (Income and consumption results)

Economic growth and labour market

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, to stand at -1.3% in November, compared with -1.1% in October. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 10.6%, from 10.4% in October, back to the September level. Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.1%), implying a broadly stable labour market. The expected unemployment rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than in January 2024, and the perceived unemployment rate 0.5 percentage points lower. The lowest income quintile continued to report the highest expected and perceived unemployment rates, as well as the lowest economic growth expectations. (Economic growth and labour market results)

Housing and credit access

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 2.9% over the next 12 months, which was 0.1 percentage points more than in October. Households in the lowest income quintile continued to expect higher growth in house prices than those in the highest income quintile (3.4% and 2.8% respectively). Expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged at 4.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than their peak in November 2023. As in previous months, the lowest income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.2%), while the highest income households expected the lowest rates (4.1%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) in access to credit over the previous 12 months declined, as did the net percentage of those expecting a tightening over the next 12 months. (Housing and credit access results)

The release of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results for December is scheduled for 31 January 2025.

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