In recent decades, the Western United States has faced a mounting environmental crisis: the depletion of groundwater resources. This pressing issue, driven by unsustainable agricultural practices and increasing demands for food production, underscores the urgent need for sustainable groundwater governance

Economic growth has significantly impacted natural ecosystems, leading to a global degradation of land and water resources. Groundwater depletion, particularly severe in the Western U.S., poses a serious threat to future water security. The region's agricultural practices, essential for meeting national and international food demands, rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation. Climate change is intensifying the need for irrigation as an adaptation strategy, exacerbating the strain on already stressed water resources.

Researchers of the Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE), funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, are investigating the complexities of this challenge and the potential global repercussions of local policies.

Thomas Hertel, distinguished professor of agriculture at Purdue University and co-author of the study explained that "Local groundwater sustainability policies, while well-intentioned, can lead to unintended global consequences. For instance, restrictions on water for irrigation in the U.S. is projected to shift crop production to other parts of the world, increasing environmental pressures elsewhere. Since crop yields are lower in most other regions, our findings project that such shifts could lead to cropland expansion by up to 20 million hectares globally, resulting in increased biodiversity loss, deforestation, and water pollution in these other locations."

The study found that increased global commodity demand, particularly from regions like South Asia and China, could significantly heighten sustainability stresses in the U.S. by mid-century, as shown in the following figure:

Credit: Iman Haqiqi, Purdue University

"Addressing the challenge of groundwater depletion requires a coordinated global effort that considers the intricate interactions between human and environmental systems through harnessing heterogeneous geospatial data. Effective water sustainability policies must recognize these feedback loops to avoid undermining long-term solutions. For instance, improvements in irrigation efficiency may reduce costs but could also paradoxically increase overall irrigation demand. The data and related scientific workflows are important to benefiting policy-making and made available on the I-GUIDE Platform," said Shaowen Wang, professor and associate dean for life and physical sciences at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the principal investigator and director of I-GUIDE.

The study is part of the work done with support from the NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE), an initiative led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign that enables geospatial-data-driven scientific discovery to make transformative advances across many fields from computer, data and information sciences to atmospheric sciences, economics, environmental science and engineering, and human-environment and geographical sciences.