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Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - June 2024

The June DMP survey was conducted between 7 and 21 June and received 2,208 responses.

Firms reported that their output prices rose by an average annual rate of 4.6% in the three months to June, down 0.3 percentage points from 4.9% in the three months to May. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% in the three months to June, the same level firms reported in the three months to May. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to decline by 0.7 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.

One-year ahead expected CPI inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% in June. Similarly, the three-month average fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in June. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations were 0.1 percentage points higher at 2.7% in the three months to June; the monthly data also rose by 0.1 percentage points since May to 2.7% in June. 

Firms reported annual employment growth of 1.1% in the three months to June, lower than the 1.5% reported in the three months to May. Expected year-ahead employment growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2% in the three months to June.

Expected year-ahead wage growth fell by 0.3 percentage points to 4.2% on a three-month moving-average basis in June. Annual wage growth was 6.0% in the three months to June, unchanged from the three months to May. Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.8 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.

Firms reported that the average interest rate that they were paying on their borrowing (both bank and market based) was 6.8% in the three months to June, 0.1 percentage point lower than the three months to May. Over the next year, firms expect the average interest rate on their borrowing to fall to 5.9% based on data from the three months to June, 0.1 percentage points lower than the expectations in the three months to May. 

Firms reported that their annual unit cost growth was 5.7% in June, 1.2 percentage points lower than they expected a year ago, in June 2023, for the year ahead. Firms expect their unit cost growth will continue to fall further over the coming year to 4.8% based on data from June.  

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