In 2022, ASEAN nations’ installed solar and wind capacity was less than 1 per cent of the region’s potential, according to independent energy think tank EMBER. 

This vast untapped potential presents significant investment opportunities, said Dr Dinita Setyawati, Senior Electricity Policy Analyst, Southeast Asia at EMBER. 

‘At the same time, it provides a strong case for more reform in regulations and policy environments,’  she said at a recent webinar hosted by Climateworks Centre as part of the ASEAN Green Future project.

‘Examples include the need to introduce a mechanism to replace Vietnam’s discontinued Feed-in Tariff and introducing more flexibility in Indonesia’s power purchase agreements to reduce risks for renewable energy developers.’

Data and modelling play an important role in guiding and informing these kinds of climate-related policy decisions. 

In particular, modelled decarbonisation pathways are crucial tools, Professor John Thwaites, Chair of the Monash Sustainable Development Institute and Climateworks, told the webinar. 

‘We don’t undertake modelling for modelling’s sake but use it as a tool to influence policies,’ he said.

Ensuring quality in modelled scenarios

Professor Thwaites underscored the importance of defining the scope, purpose, and narratives for modelled decarbonisation scenarios. 

This process, ideally undertaken in partnership or in consultation with government organisations, helps modelling address the unique challenges of each member state and generate context-specific solutions. 

Wei Sue, Acting CEO of Climateworks, highlighted the organisation’s work to translate intricate decarbonisation scenarios into actionable insights that empower key decision-makers across Australia’s public and private sectors. 

‘We conduct modelling with a very clear intent to inform key decisions that are being made in policies, and one of the biggest goals is to influence the Australian government’s climate ambition’, she said.

Ms Sue highlighted the importance of using high-quality data.

For Climateworks, partnering with reputable institutions like Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, has proved particularly valuable.

Climateworks and CSIRO co-developed and co-own the AusTIMES model, used by the organisations for whole-of-economy modelling in Australia. 

Climateworks frequently seeks government and stakeholder input to ensure the model aligns with known inputs and baselines. 

In combination with using the latest technology cost assumptions, this builds confidence among government and policy-makers.

Obtaining reliable and well-structured data presents a significant challenge for modelling efforts across Southeast Asia. 

This is one of the challenges the ASEAN Green Future project has sought to address. 

A platform for collaboration

Since its establishment in 2021, the ASEAN Green Future project has worked to facilitate a community of practice for modelling work in the region.

A collaborative project between the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), Climateworks and research teams from nine universities across Southeast Asia, the project aims to investigate ways to accelerate decarbonisation at national and regional levels that could contribute to the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Phase 1 of the project established emissions profiles for Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Lao PDR, Cambodia and the whole of ASEAN, along with analysis of the policy and technology landscape in the region. 

Phase 2 prioritises collaboration and knowledge-sharing among members by synthesising and sharing individual countries’ research findings while enhancing their modelling capabilities. 

This webinar was part of Phase 2,  with Climateworks convening modelling teams from all participating countries. 

Representatives included: 

The webinar connected these teams with EMBER and DNV Australia, two esteemed organisations with expertise in data and modelling for Southeast Asia and globally.

A call for regional cooperation in Southeast Asia’s energy transition

The advantages of regional cooperation in Southeast Asia’s energy transition go beyond planning and modelling. 

DNV’s recent research, presented by Dr Peerapat Vithayarichareon, Principle Consultant – Energy System APAC region, compared individual country efforts to a fully cooperative regional approach. 

‘The benefits of regional integration are twofold: cost savings and reduced requirements of solar capacity and energy storage in the region,’ Dr Vithayarichareon said. 

By working together, Southeast Asia could achieve significant reductions in required solar capacity (around 600 GW), battery storage (1.2 TWh), and hydrogen storage (16 TWh), translating into a smaller environmental footprint for energy production.

Achieving these benefits is not without challenges, both technically and politically. 

The research acknowledges the need for substantial additional infrastructure – an estimated 3.75 million kilometres of new electricity interconnection lines. 

Despite the challenges, the economic benefits of regional cooperation are vast. 

DNV estimates a staggering US$800 billion in cost savings for ASEAN’s overall decarbonisation through regional cooperation. 

These savings stem from reduced peak capacity requirements and countries’ ability to share low-cost resources and trade energy across borders.

Regional cooperation also enhances energy security, Dr Peerapat Vithayarichareon said.

Interconnected systems allow countries to share reserves, and wider geographical spread helps manage the variability of wind and solar power, ultimately increasing the security of supply.

Fostering data interoperability and aligning regional modelling efforts

By aligning modelling efforts and fostering data interoperability, Southeast Asia can unlock the immense potential of regional cooperation, Professor Yuen Yoong Leong, Director of Sustainability Studies at SDSN and professor at Sunway University, said.

‘Southeast Asia’s energy transition presents both challenges and opportunities,’ he said. 

‘Concerted efforts towards greater regional cooperation could unlock significant benefits, pave the way for a more secure and sustainable energy future and lay the groundwork for a future-proof transmission backbone that can accommodate Southeast Asia’s long-term economic aspirations.’

For further information about the ASEAN Green Futures project or the webinar, please contact Climateworks’ Southeast Asia Lead Trang Nguyen.