How Market Trends Impact Brokerage Valuation
There are about 106,000 real estate brokers in America. WAV Group Mergers and Acquisitions leader George Slusser insists that in the market today, “every brokerage should be either a buyer or a seller.” For the most part, even when the market size is shrinking, companies can demonstrate their strength by gaining market share.
In the absence of significant recruiting or acquisition activity, brokers business volume floats with the market. If transaction volume in your market is down 35% year over year, but your business is only down 20%, then you are outpacing the market by 15%. Those are impressive results that will normally show up in market share reports.
Realtor.com just released their 2024 housing market trends that highlights significant areas that are expected to surge next year. If you are thinking of buying or selling in these markets, having some predictive analytics on what will happen in the housing market should temper your opinion of the valuation of a brokerage.
Here are the top 10 markets that Realtor.com expects will have the largest growth in 2024.
- Toledo, Ohio
November 2023 median home price: $200,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +14.0%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +8.3%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +22.3%
- Oxnard et al, Calif.
November 2023 median home price: $1,037,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +18.0%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +3.3%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +21.3%
- Rochester, NY
November 2023 median home price: $239,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +6.2%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +10.4%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +16.6%
- San Diego et al, Calif.
November 2023 median home price: $995,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +11.0%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +5.4%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +16.3%
- Riverside, et al Calif.
November 2023 median home price: $585,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +13.8%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +2.0%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +15.8%
- Bakersfield, Calif.
November 2023 median home price: $385,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +13.4%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +2.3%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +15.7%
- Springfield, Mass.
November 2023 median home price: $350,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +10.5%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +4.2%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +14.7%
- Worcester, Mass.-Conn.
November 2023 median home price: $475,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +9.1%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +4.8%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +13.9%
- Grand Rapids et al, Mich.
November 2023 median home price: $390,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +6.1%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +7.2%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +13.3%
- Los Angeles et al, Calif.
November 2023 median home price: $1,150,000
Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +9.2%
Forecasted 2024 home price change: +3.5%
Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +12.7
It is also very interesting to look at the markets that will struggle for transaction volume. These are the major markets that are expected to continue to lag in transaction volume – but pay very close attention to the change in median home price!
| Metro | 2024 Existing Home Sale Counts Year-over-Year | 2024 Existing Home Sale Counts vs 2017-2019 Average | 2024 Existing Home Median Sale Price Year-over-Year | 2024 Existing Home Median Sale Price vs 2017-2019 Average | Combined 2024 Existing Home Sales and Price Growth |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA | -15.80% | -41.00% | 0.40% | 63.30% | -15.40% |
| Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN | -11.40% | -35.00% | -4.80% | 51.30% | -16.20% |
| Ogden-Clearfield, UT | -15.10% | -53.10% | -3.80% | 57.20% | -18.90% |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | -10.10% | -28.90% | -9.40% | 27.30% | -19.50% |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | -15.30% | -41.80% | -5.10% | 35.40% | -20.40% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | -12.90% | -35.30% | -8.40% | 31.40% | -21.40% |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | -22.40% | -45.60% | -0.90% | 58.00% | -23.30% |
| Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | -11.70% | -39.70% | -12.20% | 29.10% | -23.90% |
| Baton Rouge, LA | -20.40% | -38.60% | -5.60% | 17.80% | -25.90% |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | -25.60% | -61.30% | -7.40% | 23.70% | -33.00% |
If you are setting your 2024 goals to expand or sell your brokerage – WAV Group would love to discuss how we can help. Please reach out to any one of us leading this area of expertise: Victor Lund, George Slusser, Finley Hair, or Mark McLaughlin.
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