Led by Crisis Group’s Future of Conflict Program, the Environmental Early Action and Risk Tracking Hub (EEARTH) is an innovative climate security early warning system for the Horn of Africa. Starting with pilot projects in South Sudan and Somalia, EEARTH will help identify early indications of deadly conflict stemming from climate shocks and encourage expeditious action to prevent it. The system aims to bridge the gap between climate analysis and crisis prevention, sounding the alarm and reaching affected populations with vital information sooner, faster and in a more targeted way.

EEARTH will combine cutting-edge climate forecasting, data analysis and on-the-ground political research to provide stakeholders with actionable insights and recommendations. The platform will consolidate data from various organisations in the climate and social sciences, as well as the humanitarian and peacebuilding sectors. It will remain grounded in Crisis Group’s deep field expertise, drawing upon our network of analysts. 

Once the prototype is launched in June 2024 for South Sudan, EEARTH will serve several distinct audiences. It will help decision-makers understand the interlinkages between climate and conflict risk, allowing them to formulate responses before deadly violence erupts. It will also help donor countries and the UN agencies allocate funding to areas with the greatest climate security spillover risk and take preventive action to head off costly humanitarian and peacekeeping interventions. 

EEARTH is supported in part by the generosity of Crisis Group's partners, the Global Challenges Foundation and the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF'd).