The police uplift programme may help address key shortages, but also poses several challenges

The roles that new officers are put into will make a big difference to whether the number of charges continues to increase in future years. Interviewees repeatedly stressed concern over the national shortage of detectives. In 2021, there was a shortfall of 6,851 level 2 accredited investigators (dealing with the most complex investigations), a 38% increase on the previous year. ¹ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, 
March 2022, p. 104, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf  A lack of suitably qualified detectives can damage both the quantity and the quality of police investigations. ² HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, The Police Response to Burglary, Robbery and Other Acquisitive Crime: Finding time for crime, August 2022, https://hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/publication-html/police-response-to-burglary-robbery-and-other-acquisitive-crime 

Similarly, concerns have been raised about the ability of forces to properly manage and investigate serious acquisitive crime (burglary, robbery and theft), ³ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, The Police Response to Burglary, Robbery and Other Acquisitive Crime: Finding time for crime, August 2022, https://hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/publication-html/police-response-to-burglary-robbery-and-other-acquisitive-crime  and mismatches between the increasing demand for digital forensic examinations and forces’ capacity in this respect. ⁴ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, An Inspection into How Well the Police and Other Agencies Use Digital Forensics in their Investigations, December 2022, https://hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/publication-html/how-well-the-police-and-other-agencies-use-digital-forensics-in-their-investigations  It appears that the police uplift programme has already contributed to an increase in officers undertaking these roles, with 2,376 additional officers working in investigations in 2022/23 compared to 2018/19. This may explain why the number of charges per officer increased to 2.7 in 2022/23, from 2.6 a year earlier.* This is the first increase since 2013/14, which recorded 4.7 charges per officer. If, as newly deployed officers become fully effective, this figure continues to grow, then this will feed through into a sustained increase in the number of charges as well. 

In the short term, new officers are a drain on the productivity of more senior colleagues. Before being able to work independently, new officers require supervision by more experienced ‘tutor constables’. In one survey, the NAO found that these responsibilities may make tutors up to 50% less operationally effective, citing tutor ‘burnout’ as a problem. ⁵ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021-22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 
2022, p. 38, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf  This may have damaged the overall effectiveness of the workforce, as might some of the methods forces have employed to manage this pressure, including giving tutoring responsibilities to less experienced officers and increasing the number of students per tutor. ⁶ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021-22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 
2022, p. 38, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf  The Police Remuneration Review Body has reported that some officers became supervising sergeants after two years of service, leading to concerns that a lack of support would undermine morale and cause retention problems. ⁷ Police Remuneration Review Body, Ninth Report: England and Wales 2023, (CP 883), July 2023, p. 40, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1170127/PRRB_report_2023_web_accessible_PDF_for_publi…   

There is also evidence that the police uplift programme may have had a negative impact on the composition and thus the performance of police workforces. Officers are supported by other police staff who, as of 2022/23, made up approximately 31% of the total police workforce and include administrators, trainers and investigators. In recent years, these roles have been increasingly occupied by civilian – thus more cost- effective – specialists. ⁸ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, Observations on the Third Generation of Force Management Statements, March 2022, p. 21, https://hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/publications/observations-on-the-third-generation-of-force-management-statements  However, the requirement to maintain officer numbers has incentivised forces to replace cheaper staff – who often have specialist skills – with more expensive warranted officers. ⁹ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Service, State of Policing: The annual assessment of policing in England and Wales 2022, June 2023, https://hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/publication-html/state-of-policing-the-annual-assessment-of-policing-in-england-and-wales-2022 

Despite the overall increase in officer numbers in recent years, the number of police community support officers (PCSOs) declined by 15.6% from 2019/20 to 2022/23. Over this period, many were recruited into the uplift programme. The reduction in PCSOs – whose numbers had already fallen by 45.3% between 2009/10 and 2019/20 – has been cited as a key contributor to the decline in community engagement between forces and citizens. ¹⁰ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, p. 35, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf  While recent recruitment has boosted the number of neighbourhood officers, this has failed to translate into, for example, greater police visibility, perceptions of which reached their lowest recorded level in 2022/23. ¹¹ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: annual supplementary tables’ (‘Table S10’), 20 July 2023, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesannualsupplementarytables  This has occurred over a period in which the demands on local policing have intensified, and has contributed to worse outcomes with respect to community engagement, preventative proactivity and visibility. ¹² Higgins A, The Future of Neighbourhood Policing, The Police Foundation, May 2018, p. 63, www.police-foundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/TPFJ6112-Neighbourhood-Policing-Report-WEB_2.pdf  Indeed, to the extent that the new constables are performing neighbourhood policing roles, this is inefficient, since PCSOs are cheaper to employ than warranted officers. 

Finally, concerns have also been raised over the adequacy of the system for vetting police recruits, which has recently led the College of Policing to strengthen its vetting Code of Practice. ¹³ College of Policing, ‘Vetting Code of Practice updated’, July 2023, www.college.police.uk/article/vetting-code-practice-updated  Concerns that high recruitment demand would place vetting units under substantial pressure were raised at the start of the uplift programme in 2019. ¹⁴ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, Shining a Light on Betrayal: Abuse of position for a sexual purpose, September 2022, https://hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/publication-html/shining-a- light-on-betrayal-abuse-of-position-for-a-sexual-purpose 
  Despite these warnings, HMIC recently found that vetting units have struggled to cope with their higher caseload. ¹⁵ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, An Inspection of Vetting, Misconduct, and Misogyny in the Police Service, pp. 5–10, https://assets-hmicfrs.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/uploads/inspection-of-vetting-misconduct-and-misogyny-in-the-police.pdf  Indeed, HMIC concluded that hundreds of people had likely joined the police in the last few years who should not have. ¹⁶ Sky News, ‘Sophy Ridge On Sunday: Grant Shapps, Johnathan Reynolds and Matt Parr’, 5 February 2023, YouTube, 58:58, www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQHDYpeokOM 
  Similarly, recruiting difficulties and pressure to meet the target have sparked concerns that recruitment practices may have been simplified. ¹⁷ Fright M and Richards G, ‘Hitting the 20,000 police officer target won’t fix the criminal justice sector’s problems’, Institute for Government, April 2023, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/police-officer-target 
  The recruitment of potentially large numbers of unsuitable officers could have a long-term impact on police performance and trust in the police. 

_{* As above, this excludes some data from Devon & Cornwall Police. As such, the number of charges per officer is probably slightly higher}

Public trust in the police is falling

The case of David Carrick, who in December 2022 pleaded guilty to 49 offences (including rape) committed over a long career as an officer in the Metropolitan Police, is one of a litany of scandals that have rocked public confidence in the police in recent years. Others – including the murder of Sarah Everard, child strip searches and the Charing Cross scandal – have similarly cast doubt on the police’s ability to appropriately vet and discipline officers (including those with histories of misconduct) and, ultimately, protect the public. This was particularly true of the aftermath of the Carrick case, when it was revealed that over 1,000 allegations of sexual misconduct implicating 800 officers had been spotted by the Met. ¹⁸ BBC News, ‘Met chief says 800 officers investigated over sexual and domestic abuse claims’, 16 January 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-64293158  More recently, the Met has revealed large increases in the number of officers dismissed for gross misconduct, awaiting gross misconduct hearings, or who have been suspended. ¹⁹ BBC News, ‘1,000 Met Police officers suspended or on restricted duties’, 19 September 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66842521 

Most of this attention is focused on the Met, which Baroness Casey – in her recent review into behaviour and standards in the Met – labelled institutionally racist, homophobic and sexist. ²⁰ Baroness Casey Review, Final Report: An independent review into the standards of behaviour and internal culture of the Metropolitan Police Service, Baroness Casey of Blackstock DBE CB, March 2023, www.met.police.uk/ SysSiteAssets/media/downloads/met/about-us/baroness-casey-review/update-march-2023/baroness-casey-review-march-2023a.pdf 
  However, along with the Met, another three forces are also in ‘special measures’, ²¹ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, ‘Police forces in Engage’, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/about-us/what-we-do/our-approach-to-monitoring-forces/police-forces-in-engage  an advanced monitoring process for forces not responding to – or unable to deal with – concerns identified by HMIC. ²² HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, ‘Our approach to monitoring forces’, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/about-us/what-we-do/our-approach-to-monitoring-forces  Similarly, there is evidence that claims of sexual misconduct and racism are proportionally higher in several other forces. 

These reports have likely contributed to the marked decline in trust in the police among people from minority ethnic backgrounds in particular. One survey from the Mayor’s Office for Police and Crime (covering London) reported that the proportion of Black respondents who believe that the police treat everyone fairly regardless of who they are fell from 64% in 2019/20 to 46% in 2021/22 (having been relatively stable since 2014/15). While such surveys in London consistently display lower rates among Black than White respondents, it is notable that the same survey also displayed a marked – though smaller – decline among White British respondents from 2019/20. ²³ Baroness Casey Review, Final Report: An independent review into the standards of behaviour and internal culture of the Metropolitan Police Service, Baroness Casey of Blackstock DBE CB, March 2023, www.met.police.uk/SysSiteAssets/media/downloads/met/about-us/baroness-casey-review/update-march-2023/baroness-casey-review-march-2023a.pdf   

Trust in the police among the general population is also declining. The share of CSEW respondents reporting that their local police are doing a good or excellent job fell by 5 percentage points between 2019/20 and 2022/23, to 51%. This is down from 63% in 2015/16. Interestingly, the ethnic groups with the largest proportion claiming the police are doing a good or excellent job are Asian, Black and Other ethnic groups. Respectively, 59%, 56% and 63% of the respondents in these groups believed their local police were doing a good or excellent job in 2022/23, compared to 50% of White respondents. ²⁴ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: annual supplementary tables’ (‘Table S2’), 20 July 2023, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesannualsupplementarytables