Recession Not Dependent on Trade War, But Trade War Escalation Would Make Recession Almost Inevitable

MOUNT KISCO, N.Y., May 22, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- David Levy wrote to clients in the May 2019 issue of The Levy Forecast^® that “a global recession looks increasingly probable, even before considering the consequences of this month’s trade war escalation.”

The chairman of the independent Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC (www.levyforecast.com) continued, “China’s failure to stimulate adequately, Europe’s listlessness, and strains in the rest of the emerging market sector are all gradually slowing the global economy and compressing profit margins. The U.S. shift from accelerating to decelerating inventory building is putting an additional strain on the global economy at an inopportune time.”

Writing in a publication devoted to forecasting and analyzing economic and business conditions since 1949, Levy described further escalations of the trade war as “nails in the coffin” of the global expansion.

Levy cautioned against placing confidence in a trade war resolution, an effective Chinese stimulus, or a reacceleration of the global economy, warning clients of “a strong likelihood that at some point an accumulation of disappointments will reach a critical mass and set off an uncontrolled chain reaction in financial markets.”

About The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC
The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center LLC is an independent economic research and consulting firm that has been specializing in using the macroeconomic Profits Perspective in economic analysis and forecasting for seven decades. The goal of the Levy Forecasting Center is to improve its clients’ business and investment performance by providing them with powerful insights into economic risks and opportunities – insights that are difficult or even impossible to achieve with conventional approaches to macroeconomic analysis. Additional information may be found at www.levyforecast.com.

For press inquiries contact Robert King at The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center – rking@levyforecast.com.

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