Pakistan : First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
Author/Editor:
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publication Date:
March 14, 2018
Electronic Access:
Free Full Text. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file
Summary:
Economic growth has continued to strengthen. Improved energy supply, investment related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, strong credit growth, and continued investor and consumer confidence, have been underpinning growth, which could reach 5.6 percent this fiscal year within a favorable inflation environment. Yet, macroeconomic stability gains achieved during the 2013–16 EFF have been eroding, putting this outlook at risk. The current account deficit has been quickly widening, reflecting strong domestic demand amid an overvalued exchange rate, fiscal slippages, and an accommodative monetary policy stance. As a result, foreign exchange reserves have been declining, reaching 2.3 months of imports as of mid-February 2018, despite significant external borrowing. Net international reserves have declined from $7.5 billion at the end of the EFF to negative $0.7 billion in mid-February 2018. As a result of fiscal slippages in FY 2016/17, debt-related vulnerabilities have increased.
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