2023 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast Now Available from Aviation Week Network
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Aviation Week Network today releases the 2023 Commercial, Business and Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecasts, a ten-year outlook of these industries. Produced with independent data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams, the forecast findings show commercial deliveries to increase in velocity and MRO aftermarket demand growth to slow slightly but still produce over $1 trillion in MRO demand, growing at a 2.8% CAGR. With increased utilization, engine shop visits are expected to yield $405.6 billion in demand necessitating over 87,000 overhaul events over the decade.
“Recent examples of pent-up air travel demand underscore the optimistic forecast for the commercial transport aircraft segment. Continued improvements are still to come as several regions experience passenger demand improvements while others are practically recovered. Nearly 21,800 commercial aircraft are anticipated with more than 10,800 aircraft retiring during the ten-year forecast period,” said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Services at Aviation Week Network. “At risk are knock on effects from labor shortages, nagging supply chain issues, and MRO aftermarket performance as well as underlying positive economic conditions continuing to support our industry.”
The findings note that Airbus surpasses Boeing in narrowbody deliveries with the A320 outnumbering the 737 fleet at the end of 2032 by over 2,000 aircraft. The anticipated retirement wave is not likely in the very near term given about 2,000 airworthy aircraft remain in long-term storage. However, a historically high percentage of the fleet retirements, above 3%, mostly from North America, starts in 2025. Long-term aircraft retirements could signal trouble for legacy engine parts suppliers as green time and USM materials flood the engine market in the second half of the decade. The 2023 business aviation and helicopter forecasts are scheduled for release in mid-October. The 2023 military forecast is to be released by November 1, 2022.
In business aviation market, the ten-year forecast sees the worldwide fleet growing from 34,368 aircrafts to 38,848 aircrafts, a 13% increase in fleet counts, with a 1.3% CAGR. Deliveries, counting jets & turboprops, will number over 1,000 aircraft annually and over ten-years be worth $273 billion. MRO aftermarket requirements grow at a 3.1% CAGR.
For the rotary wing market, the turbine-powered fleet will see over 6,400 new deliveries worth $37.6 billion growing its fleet at a 1.3% rate. MRO aftermarket requirements are worth $75.2 billion.
The 2023 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast findings detail market demands and industry trends accounting for the impact of economic and macro trends on global fleets and MRO. By combining current fleet counts form its in-house fleet database, projected aircraft fleet changes, in-house flight data derived utilization projections, and segmented MRO cost analytics, the forecasts deliver critical strategic insights for the commercial market sector.
For more information on Aviation Week Network’s 2023 Fleet & MRO Forecasts or to subscribe, contact Melissa Crum at +19132842951 or go to https://pgs.aviationweek.com/2023Forecast.
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