Winter on the Northern Sea Route; ‘Shadow Fleet’ Risks

High North News reported on October 14 that winter sea ice is returning to the Northern Sea Route early this year. The Russian Northern Sea Route Administration announced that by October 15 vessels without ice-class need to depart the East Siberian and Chukchi Sea. Low ice-class vessels are required to vacate the region by October 20. Three vessels carrying power plant modules to the Arctic LNG 2 project are expected to continue on their journey despite lacking sufficient ice-class ratings. (High North News)

Take 1: Disruptions to Russian LNG production, regardless of whether they are caused by weather or sanctions, are welcome in light of Russia’s war on Ukraine. However, they also increase the risk of accidents in the Arctic. Arctic LNG 2 is part of Russia’s strategy to triple its LNG production to 100 million tons by 2030, with completion targeted by 2026. The early arrival of sea ice will further complicate these efforts, already hindered by Western sanctions. In response to these sanctions, Russia has been increasing environmental and safety risks by relaxing enforcement of its Northern Sea Route regulations. Specifically, it is no longer enforcing registration and vessel classification rules for its so-called ‘shadow fleet.’ This policy shift demonstrates that Russia is prioritizing oil and gas revenue to fund the war in Ukraine over environmental and safety concerns. The consequences of these risks fall heavily on Arctic communities, who would bear the brunt of any oil or gas accidents in the region. It is crucial to expose Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ and its acceptance of heightened risks. Western intelligence officials, researchers, and journalists need to shed light on these activities, not only to enhance the effectiveness of sanctions but also to improve preparedness for potential shipping accidents in the Arctic. (High North News, High North News, High North News, High North News, The Barents Observer, World Energy)

China-Russia Arctic Container Ship Joint Venture Announced

High North News reported on October 15 that an Atomflot official at a shipping forum in St. Petersburg announced plans for a Russia-China joint venture to build five Arc7 high ice-class containerships. These vessels are intended for use on the Arctic Express shipping route that connects Shanghai and Ningbo, China with St. Petersburg and Archangelsk, Russia. These additional vessels will enable China’s NewNew Shipping Line to expand its operations on Arctic routes beyond the July to November window. (High North News)

Take 2: China and Russia continue to signal their intent to strengthen cooperation and pursue opportunities in trans-Arctic shipping. This cooperation is increasing in the context of the changing environmental conditions in the Arctic and the emergence of a multipolar world where a new group of Axis states (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran) are challenging not just the ‘West’ or Allies, but the concept of the international order itself. Some states including India, South Africa, Brazil, and Indonesia are pursuing non-alignment with either the Axis or the Allies. While there is uncertainty in the timing and future viability of trans-Arctic shipping, all states will be affected by it. In addition to working with China, Russia convened a working group with India on October 10 to discuss polar navigation and joint Arctic shipbuilding projects. The allied side has not been idle either. In July, the United States, Finland, and Canada announced the cleverly named Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact – a trilateral arrangement to collaborate on the production of polar icebreakers and other capabilities. The prospect of trans-Arctic shipping should not be dismissed as a distant opportunity. The conditions in the Arctic are harsh, but a survey of the world’s maritime chokepoints shows the tenuousness of the security situation on global sea routes. Over the last year, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea caused a 40 percent reduction in shipping through the Suez Canal and drought reduced throughput at the Panama Canal by 33 percent. It is not surprising that Viktor Bout, the Russian arms dealer known as the “Merchant of Death,” is in Yemen to sell weapons to the Houthis. Could the Russians be planning to drive demand for trans-Arctic shipping by disrupting sea routes elsewhere? (High North News, Times of India, The Straits Times, AP News, Wilson Center)

Russian Defense Minister Visits Arctic Troops

As reported by The Barents Observer, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade, also known as the ‘Kirkenes Brigade,’ at their base in the Kola Peninsula. The brigade was severely weakened in Ukraine and Belousov’s visit is part of a broader effort to develop Russia’s land forces in the Arctic. The Head Commander of the Russian Navy Aleksandr Moiseev and Commander of the Northern Fleet Konstantin Kabantsov were also in the delegation, which included a visit to the nuclear submarine Knyaz Vladimir. (The Barents Observer)

Take 3: The Russian Defense Minister’s visit serves several purposes. First, it aims to boost the morale of a force severely weakened by the war in Ukraine. To revive the myth of the ‘Kirkenes Brigade’ as an elite unit, the troops must believe in their elite status, and a visit from the defense minister and senior military leaders helps reinforce that belief. Second, Russia is sending a message to NATO that it is committed to strengthening all its Arctic forces, including its ground troops. This is significant as Russia’s conventional military, particularly the Army, has been depleted by the conflict in Ukraine. Given that a major portion of Russia’s nuclear strike capability is based in the Kola Peninsula, bordering Finland and Norway, it is logical for the defense minister to focus on the readiness of the land forces stationed there. The connections between the Arctic and the war in Ukraine are starker than some would have expected. Russia has committed more forces to Ukraine than the “special military operation” called for and they have had to accept risk in other areas including the High North. Russia has employed Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Olenya Air Base in the Kola Peninsula to attack Ukraine while conducting electronic warfare attacks on NATO. The Ukrainians are fighting back, and Russia has recently been employing protective measures like anti-drone nets to critical infrastructure in Murmansk. Visiting Russian land forces in the Kola Peninsula is a prudent decision by the defense minister. (The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer) 

Pechenga Lieutenant Refuses to Fight: 2-Year Sentence Served

The Barents Observer reported on October 14 that Dmitry Vasilets, a lieutenant from Pechenga, Russia was released from jail after serving a two-year sentence for refusing to fight in Ukraine. Lieutenant Vasilets was sentenced to 2 years and 5 months in prison under part 2.1 of article 332 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. After serving for five months in Ukraine, Lieutenant Vasilets went on leave and did not return to the battlefield. He was recognized as a political prisoner by Human Rights Center Memorial in June 2023.

Take 4: Lieutenant Dmitry Vasilets’s decision and bravery should be celebrated. Telegram remains an important medium for exposing stories like this one from the Russian Arctic so they can be picked up by Western media outlets and amplified. While the Russian people are culpable for the actions of their government, especially given their collective support for President Vladimir Putin’s regime, the voices of the dissenters among them should be amplified. Edmund Burke said, “All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.” In this case, Lieutenant Vasilets chose not to remain silent. His act of defiance sheds light on the internal opposition within Russia, even when it is overshadowed by the government’s repressive apparatus. While this story is about one individual, there is another story embedded in it about journalism in this war and the contemporary operating environment. Western journalists and Russian journalists from the Arctic in exile are important actors in fighting Russia’s tyranny, albeit in a different way than Ukrainian soldiers. Their work helps keep dissenting voices alive, even in the face of intense repression. (The Barents Observer)

Alaska Tribes Dispute Sacred Site Establishment in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Anchorage Daily News reports that Gwich’in tribes in Alaska have requested the Biden administration establish an Indigenous sacred site in the Alaska Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The request is motivated by an upcoming oil and gas lease sale consistent with federal laws. Inupiat leaders are opposed and contend the request encroaches on their traditional lands. The Inupiat are concerned the designation of the site would limit their ability to benefit from a natural gas pipeline and the road that will benefit the village of Kaktovik. (Anchorage Daily News)

Take 5: The timing of the Gwich’in request on the eve of the U.S. presidential election is likely intended to secure a decision before the potential re-election of former President Donald Trump. President Trump has articulated his intent to unleash the power of American energy by rolling back regulations and exploiting fossil fuels to restore American energy dominance that was realized during the presidency of Barrack Obama. The opposition of the Inupiat leaders highlights the complexities at the state and local level over who bears the costs and derives the benefits from natural resource extraction. Both tribes have deep-rooted cultural and economic ties to the region, but their visions for the future diverge sharply. In this case, the Gwich’in aim to protect the Porcupine caribou herd they hunt while the Inupiat want to realize the economic benefits of oil and gas extraction. This clash of interests over a shared land reveals the tension between environmental preservation and economic opportunity in the context of Indigenous sovereignty. This situation is a microcosm of larger debates over energy, climate change, and Indigenous rights in the U.S. If President Trump prevails in the upcoming election, we can expect coverage of cases like this to be prevalent in media discourse and on court dockets in the years ahead. (Anchorage Daily News, Brookings)