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An expedition cruise ship sailing in the Arctic Ocean. Photo: Ekaterina Uryupova

Ship navigation in the polar regions, i.e. the Arctic and Antarctica, requires special qualifications from the crew and the use of specific technologies. In many ways, going to space is easier than piloting and operating ships in the polar regions. There are too many uncertain characters and variabilities which make navigation in the polar regions an adventure itself. Even though people have been bringing ships to the icy waters and exploring cold regions for centuries, relying completely on charts and standard navigation tools remains risky, and the Polar Code does not provide a one-size-fits-all solution for safe operations in these areas. Due to climate change, extreme weather effects are becoming another challenge for ships sailing in the northern waters. Here we discuss climate and weather factors impacting navigation in the Arctic.

More ships are recorded in the North over a past decade

Due to accelerated rates of melting sea ice in the Arctic region, the potential for easier and safer navigation seems to be obvious. For instance, sea ice sickness and variations in interannual temperature support positive projections of increasing shipping along the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic region.¹⁾Mahmoud M.R., Roushdi M. & Aboelkhear M. Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050. Scientific Reports 14, 2771 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53308-5 According to the Arctic Council Working Group on the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME), an increase of 37 percent in ship numbers and distance sailed has been recorded in the Arctic over the past 10 years.²⁾The Arctic Council (2024). Arctic shipping update: 37% increase in ships in the Arctic over 10 years, 31 January 2024. Available from https://arctic-council.org/news/increase-in-arctic-shipping/. Accessed on 14 March 2024. At the same time, it should be mentioned that these numbers do not only represent ships of the eight Arctic States but also numerous ships under flags of the Arctic Council Observer States entering the Arctic Polar Code area on a regular basis.³⁾The Arctic Ship Status Report (2023). The Arctic Council, December 2023. Available from https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/items/e229d1aa-a620-4484-b989-9eefdccb4f25. Accessed on 14 March 2024.

Climate change is opening huge, newly ice-free areas in northern waters for all kinds of activities for civil and navy vessels. For instance, current growing tensions in the North have resulted in numerous regional deployments, patrols and other incidents in the maritime Arctic,⁴⁾Uryupova E. (2023). Global interest in the Arctic region: Naval operations impacting scientific-commercial activities. Polar Record. 2023; 59:e8. https://doi:10.1017/S0032247422000419 and brought more icebreakers and submarines in the region as well.⁵⁾More IceBreakers & Submarines Under Ice – US Intensifies Arctic Combat Push (2024). Warrior Maven, 5 February 2024. Available from https://warriormaven.com/sea/more-icebreakers-submarines-under-ice-us-intensifies-arctic-combat-push. Accessed on 07 April 2024. Additionally, fishing vessels can be found in new areas of exploration as soon as commercial species migrate farther north and fill new niches in local marine ecosystems.⁶⁾Uryupova E. (2023). Climate Change as a Factor Impacting Current and Future Commercial Fisheries in the Arctic Region. The Arctic Institute, October 23, 2023. Available from https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-factor-impacting-current-future-commercial-fisheries-arctic-region/. Accessed on 09 April 2024. Marine traffic of expedition cruise ships has increased significantly in remote Arctic such as Svalbard and Greenland in recent years as well. Thus in 2022, the number of passenger vessels was back to the level before the coronavirus pandemic in some locations.⁷⁾MOSJ Environmental Monitoring of Svalbard and Jan Mayen (2023). Cruise tourism, June 6, 2023. Available from https://mosj.no/en/indikator/influence/traffic/cruise-tourism/. Accessed on 29 March 2024. Projections for the Arctic routes indicate 100 percent navigation probability for the coming decades as well.⁸⁾Mudryk L.R., Dawson J., Howell S.E.L. et al. Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic. Nature Climate Change 11, 673–679 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6.

Climate change indicators – weather and climate

Recent data shows that the number of extreme events and weather variability is growing in the Arctic – these factors can affect ship stability and maneuverability, which affects safety at sea. These abnormalities are considered as occurrences of unusual severe weather or climate conditions, which scientists are not always able to forecast accurately.

For 2017-2022, temperature extremes, snow and sea-ice changes, and shifts in seasonality are the most frequently reported north of 60° N.⁹⁾Overland J.E. (2022). Arctic Climate Extremes. Atmosphere 13, 1670. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101670. In remote areas with a need to cover large distances, rough weather, drifting ice patches, and foggy conditions may create additional difficulties for navigation in the Arctic. Such phenomena as polar lows – short-lived atmospheric low-pressure systems – also known as extreme marine storms, are being recorded more often in northern waters. As a result of their activity, strong winds and rogue waves are created over big areas, posing a threat to ships.¹⁰⁾Uryupova E. (2023). Already extreme, Arctic weather is about to get a little worse. Polar Journal, June 13, 2023. Available from https://polarjournal.ch/en/2023/06/13/already-extreme-arctic-weather-is-about-to-get-a-little-worse/. Accessed on 06 April 2024.

Another recently discovered factor related to the climate change in the Arctic is related to atmospheric rivers – long and concentrated water vapors in the atmosphere which significantly reduce recovery of sea ice and impact navigation in the frigid waters.¹¹⁾Uryupova E. (2023). Atmospheric rivers impacting the polar regions. Polar Journal, May 18, 2023. Available from https://polarjournal.ch/en/2023/05/18/atmospheric-rivers-impacting-the-polar-regions/. Accessed on 27 March 2024.

Scientists say that a change of hydrology of the Arctic Ocean is ongoing as well, thus it may have a significant effect on the distribution of the marine living resources such as fish, and fishing activity (fishing vessels) as well, as we record more upwelling areas in the North (areas where deep and cold waters are brought to the surface of the ocean, and they create absolutely new conditions for navigation in the area).¹²⁾Uryupova E. (2023). More upwelling areas in the Arctic region – new climate pattern and fisheries grounds? Polar Journal, November 4, 2023. Available from https://polarjournal.ch/en/2023/11/04/more-upwelling-areas-in-the-arctic-region-new-climate-pattern-and-fisheries-grounds/. Accessed on 26 March 2024.

Climate change alters ship’s itineraries in the North

About 10 percent of Arctic waters are surveyed to modern or adequate standards, and appropriate corrections for charts must be applied according to data sources and alterations originating from climate change processes.¹³⁾Huntington H.P., Olsen J., Zdor E., Zagorskiy A., Chul Shin H., Romanenko O., Kaltenborn B., Dawson J., Davies J., Abou-Abbsi E. (2023). Effects of Arctic commercial shipping on environments and communities: context, governance, priorities, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 118, 2023, 103731. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.103731. When it comes to natural factors, such as weather and climate, the lack of technology, insufficient infrastructure and equipment, and human factors may significantly decrease the safety of navigation across the Arctic.¹⁴⁾Yahan H., Minglu M. (2021). Research on key problems of Arctic navigation safety. Journal of Physics: Conference Series: 1827 012094

The frequency of extreme weather events is growing in the North. These changes are affecting the Arctic shipping in many ways, including the increase in risk for navigation. Lower central pressures for the poleward-shifted storms, which are increasing in number, may result in increased wind speeds and extreme wave heights in polar regions, with an associated increase in the sea-spray icing of ships.¹⁵⁾Report of PIANC EnviCom Task Group 3: Climate change and navigation. (2023). Waterborne Transport, Ports and Waterways: A 2023 Update of Climate Change Drivers and Impacts. Available from https://www.pianc.org/publication/waterborne-transport-ports-and-waterways-a-2023-update-of-climate-change-drivers-and-impacts/. Accessed on 21 March 2024. For example, this was a reason why the fishing vessel Onega capsized in the Barents Sea in December 2020, after a period of extreme sea-spray icing conditions.¹⁶⁾Müller, M., Knol-Kauffman, M., Jeuring, J. et al. Arctic shipping trends during hazardous weather and sea-ice conditions and the Polar Code’s effectiveness. npj Ocean Sustain 2, 12 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-023-00021-x.

Out-of-date nautical charts may pose a huge risk for navigation in shallow waters and fjords of the Arctic. Concerns should be raised in the maritime industry over the quality of the data upon which the charts are based, since the age and accuracy of data on nautical charts may significantly vary. One of the reasons for the inaccuracy of data might be an environmental shift caused by climate change. In fjords with active melting glaciers – a meltout sediment from the basal ice adds sediment to the flow and increases the deposition rate, and as a result the bottom topography changes significantly over the years.¹⁷⁾Turnbull J.M., Davies T.R.H. “Subglacial Sediment Accumulation and Basal Smoothing – a Mechanism for Initiating Glacier Surging.” Journal of Hydrology (New Zealand), vol. 41, no. 2, 2002, pp. 105–23. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43944846. These factors were likely the case when the expedition cruise ship The Ocean Explorer got stuck in the mud in a remote area of Alpefjord, East Greenland, in 2023.¹⁸⁾The Guardian (2023). Cruise ship runs aground in Greenland with 206 passengers onboard. 13 September 2023. Available from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/12/cruise-ship-runs-aground-in-greenland-with-206-passengers-onboard. Accessed on 15 March 2024. Numerous examples show that the harsh environment of polar regions still may pose a considerable risk to ship navigation.

The Polar Code: Sailing through a plethora of challenges

The Polar Code,the international code of safety for ships operating in polar waters, is a relatively recent and significant milestone in international regulation of navigation in polar waters,which covers a wide range of requirements to ships operating in the frigid waters of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas.¹⁹⁾IMO (2017). The Polar Code. Available from https://www.imo.org/en/ourwork/safety/pages/polar-code.aspx. Accessed on 02 April 2024. It has been created as a compulsory framework for safe ship operation and environmental protection in icy waters. On one hand, the Polar Code’s provision gives a solid universal set of operating standards for various vessels sailing in the polar areas. On the other hand, experts identify multiple notable gaps in the documents, especially related to the environmental protection, pollution, and safety of various types of vessels.²⁰⁾WWF (2022). Improving the Polar Code for better protect Arctic waters. April 08, 2022. Available from https://www.arcticwwf.org/newsroom/features/improving-the-polar-code-to-better-protect-arctic-waters/. Accessed on 03 April 2024; Schomans H. (2019). Revisiting the Polar Code: where do we stand? The Arctic Institute, June 11, 2019. Available from https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/revisiting-polar-code/. Accessed on 03 April 2024. Among other obstacles, issues related to climate change are not properly covered in the Code at all. A broad variety of climate-induced environmental impacts includes not only temperature and sea-ice conditions mentioned in the documents but many other parameters such as fog, sea-spray icing, atmospheric rivers, unusual storms, and more.

The Polar Code has been improving since the time it was adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2014. The most significant modifications are related to pollution of the Arctic Ocean, such as the prohibition on the use of heavy fuel,²¹⁾Comer B., Osipova L., Georgeff E., Mao X. (2020). International maritime organization’s proposed Arctic heavy fuel oil ban: likely implications and opportunities for improvement. The International Council On Clean Transportation, September 3, 2020. Available from https://theicct.org/publication/the-international-maritime-organizations-proposed-arctic-heavy-fuel-oil-ban-likely-implications-and-opportunities-for-improvement/. Accessed on 17 March 2024. and discussions on underwater noise pollution.²²⁾Humpert M. (2023). IMO Updates Guidelines on Noise Pollution, But no Mandatory Rules for the Arctic. High North News, January 31, 2023. Available from https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/imo-updates-guidelines-noise-pollution-no-mandatory-rules-arctic. Accessed on 07 April 2024. However, it is difficult to find any advice on the prediction and mitigation of hazardous weather events caused by climate change on ships operating in polar regions. Icy waters remain highly unpredictable for various types of ships, even the best prepared and equipped, as recent incidents demonstrate.

As a result, significant efforts should be made to research, develop and improve life-saving equipment and communication technology aboard the vessels operating in the polar waters.²³⁾Humpert M. (2023). Polar Code may need updating as Arctic shipping increases, new study concludes. High North News, September 26, 2023. Available from https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/polar-code-may-need-updating-arctic-shipping-increases-new-study-concludes. Accessed on 02 April 2024. The need for independent maritime regulatory authorities as well as the development of state transport policies, and wider information-sharing relating to the analysis of the impact of climate change should be taken into account.²⁴⁾Bhagwat J. (2023). Maritime Shipping in the Arctic: Challenges and Opportunities to Improve Safety Must Be Reflected in the State’s Transport Policy. Arctic and North. 50. 109-126. https://doi.10.37482/issn2221-2698.2023.50.109

Conclusion

The polar regions can still be considered among the most challenging environments to navigate by sea due to risks presented by unpredictable weather and climate factors. The number of ships sailing in Arctic waters is increasing and will continue to grow over coming decades, which will produce both opportunities and challenges. The escalating impacts of climate change in the northern waters have created ample opportunities for Arctic shipping activities related to cargo shipping, fishing, expedition cruise tourism, mineral resource exploration, science, and naval activities. Visual observation using satellite images can help in selecting safer routes to avoid icebergs and sea ice. However, extreme weather events and the effects of climate change such as Arctic cyclones, unexpectedly high ocean waves, and rapid sea ice drift may increase uncertainties in forecasts and make navigation unsafe. Well-established communication and information-sharing between researchers and ship crews are crucial for all kinds of vessels to make information complete, precise, and available. In addition, together with international maritime laws and policies and the Polar Code, a development of a shared governance framework to cope with the various challenges stemming from the climate change impact will be crucial in the future.