Last week’s election saw both mayors and police and crime commissioners (PCCs) elected under the first-past-the-post system (FPTP) for the first time. Previously these roles were elected using the supplementary vote (SV), a system that required candidates to appeal across party lines for second preference votes from supporters of other candidates. So what impact did this change have?

In the mayoral races, the change doesn’t seem to have affected any outcomes. Exactly half (5 of 10) mayoralties up for grabs were won with more than half the vote share – so wouldn’t have gone to second preferences under SV anyway (if voters had chosen their candidate as their first preference, that is).   Of the other half, reallocated votes from Liberal Democrats and the Greens would, on previous voting patterns, most likely have ended up going to Labour candidates.  

However, a key consequence of the change in system is that several mayors have now been elected with a relatively low vote share – the new West Midlands and North Yorkshire mayors won less than 40% of the vote. Previously, the winning candidates would have had to gain at least second preference backing from 50% of voters. This raises the question of whether this change weakens the mandate of mayors and makes it harder for them to act with authority as leaders of their regions. 

The change of system had a clearer impact on the police and crime commissioner results. Overall in the PCC contests, Conservatives won 19, Labour won 17 and Plaid Cymru won one. 

Eight of the PCCs won by the Conservatives did so with less than 3% lead on the Labour rival. These were Warwickshire (0.2% lead), Leicestershire (0.5%), Thames Valley (0.5%), Gloucestershire (1.0%), Wiltshire (1.8%), Cambridgeshire (2.0%), Staffordshire (2.1%) and Essex (2.8%). 

In these contests, the remainder of the vote was split between the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and some independent candidates – most of which under a SV system would again likely have cast their second preference vote for Labour. 

For these reasons, our recent paper on how the next government should complete the job of English devolution calls upon the next government to review this electoral change, with a view to switching back to a preferential voting system.