Commercial Aviation’s Continued Growth Over the Next Decade; Airbus Solidifies Market Share Gains in Narrowbody Deliveries; New Engine Issues Cause Headwinds

NEW YORK, NY, USA, October 10, 2023 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Aviation Week Network today announces the 2024 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecasts, a 10-year outlook of the air transport industry. Produced with independent projections and data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams, the forecast findings show commercial deliveries increasing in velocity and MRO aftermarket demand growth to follow suit producing nearly $1.2 trillion in MRO demand after growing at a 3.0% CAGR. With increased utilization, engine shop visits are expected to yield $462.3 billion in demand, necessitating over 96,000 overhaul events over the decade.

“The aftermath of pent-up air travel is still the driving factor behind continued positive outlooks around the world. With North America recovering the quickest, recently seeing 98% of pre-pandemic levels, followed by Europe at 97% and Latin America, Middle East, and China all solidly above 2019 levels, the message is clear. More than 22,100 commercial aircraft deliveries are anticipated, led by narrowbody-class airframes with over 10,200 aircraft retiring during the 10-year forecast period,” said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Services. “At risk are knock on effects from new engine troubles, labor shortages, nagging supply chain issues, and MRO aftermarket performance as well as underlying economic conditions continuing to support our industry.”

Narrowbody-class aircraft will make up 75% of the 22,100 global deliveries. The findings note that Airbus surpasses Boeing in narrowbody deliveries with the A320 outnumbering the 737 fleet at the end of 2033 by over 1,500 aircraft. The anticipated retirement wave is not likely in the very near-term, given the 1,200-1,500 airworthy aircraft remaining in long-term storage. However, given the propensity of operators choosing new generation aircraft over legacy types and retirement activity low over the past two years, an historically high percentage of fleet retirements, above 3%, mostly from North America, is anticipated to peak around 2028. Long-term, aircraft retirements could signal trouble for legacy engine parts suppliers as green time and unused service materials (USM) flood the engine markets in the second half of the decade.

The 2024 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast findings detail market demands and industry trends accounting for the impact of economic and macro trends on global fleets and MRO. By combining current fleet counts and stats, projected aircraft fleet changes, in-house flight data derived utilization projections, and segmented MRO cost analytics, the forecast delivers critical strategic insights for the commercial market sector.

The 2024 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast will be released by November 6th.

For more information on Aviation Week Network’s 2024 Fleet & MRO Forecasts or to subscribe, contact Anne McMahon at +1 646 469 1564, anne.mcmahon@aviationweek.com or go to https://pgs.aviationweek.com/2022Forecasts.

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