January Alerts and December Trends 2023

Israel and U.S. traded deadly tit-for-tat attacks with Iran-backed groups amid tensions over Israel-Hamas war, hostilities persisted in north west, and Islamic State (ISIS) maintained its desert insurgency.

Israel launched airstrikes, U.S. and Iran-backed groups targeted each other. Israel continued to target various locations, including in retaliation against alleged Hizbollah rocket launches. Notably, Israeli airstrike 2 Dec killed four Iran-linked militants in capital Damascus; drone 8 Dec killed four, including three Hizbollah fighters in Quneitra province. In significant attack, airstrike 25 Dec killed prominent Iranian commander Razi Mousavi; Tehran warned Israel to expect “smart response”. Drone attack 29 Dec targeted warehouses in Al-Bukamal; confirmed casualties included at least four Hizbollah members and six Iranian-linked militants. Meanwhile, U.S. 1 Dec struck alleged “Islamic Resistance” headquarters in Al-Bukamal. Attacks 14 Dec targeted U.S. base in Conoco gas field, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Tanf and Rukban bases, Homs; in response, U.S. 9 Dec struck military site in Al-Mayadin, Deir ez-Zor.

In north west, hostilities continued. Rebel raid 7 Dec targeted army in Aleppo province, claiming seven army members as casualties. Rebels 17 Dec targeted govt forces in Latakia province, prompting Russia 18, 19, 25 Dec to resume airstrikes targeting Idlib city and countryside, killing at least five civilians. Shelling in Idlib throughout Dec killed at least sixteen civilians; UN reported 40% of fatalities since early Oct were children. Meanwhile, in Aleppo province, Manbij Military Council 16 Dec fired rockets at Turkish base in Sheikh Nasser village. SDF claimed Turkish airstrikes 23-25 Dec killed eight civilians in SDF-controlled area (see Türkiye).

ISIS continued to show signs of resurgence. Suspected ISIS attack 8 Dec killed Iranian commander and four others in Al-Bukamal city, Deir ez-Zor province; same day killed seven pro-regime fighters near Al-Bukamal. Russian airstrike 15 Dec killed ISIS militants near Al-Sukhna village, Homs province, and Al-Rasafa villages, Hama province.

Anti-govt protests continued in south amid unstable Syrian-Jordanian border. Anti-govt protests in Suwayda city 1, 9, 10, 15, 20 Dec demanded political change, release of detainees. Jordan mid Dec reportedly launched airstrikes after cross-border raids (see Jordan).