- Technical Market Commentary -

July 8, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) (Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=cmmtry for all recent commentaries.) — Shares of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM) rose some 3% in Wednesday’s strong stock market rally. But while IWM performed well on the day, the ETF was unable to close higher than the prior day’s intra-day highs. If that was a breakout rally from the long correction, it lacked an actual breakout. Add to that Tuesday’s poor performance, when the stock market closed with a gain while IWM closed deeply in the red, and IWM is underperforming.

IWM has declined 21% from peak to trough during the current correction, which puts it in bear market territory, at least for the small cap sector.

IWM remains below its 50-day moving average as well as its 200-day moving average. We would be hesitant to consider a bullish trade in this ETF until IWM closes above that 200-day average currently at $63.81.

(Go to http://www.financialwire.net/2010/04/22/about-kollar/ for more about Mr. Kollar, and go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=kllrfby+cmmtry for more of Kollar’s commentaries.)

The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 most actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest percentage losers and greatest percentage winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Last session’s most actives showed 20 advancers versus 5 decliners. Volume leaders were led by the SPDRS S&P 500 Trust ETF (AMEX: SPY) (streaming research for SPY available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=34430), Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) (streaming research for Citigroup available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=7921), the Financial Select Sector SPDRS ETF (AMEX: XLF) (streaming research for XLF available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=1026233), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) (streaming research for BAC available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=1026233), and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) (streaming research for GE available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=8030).

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Chain Store Sales for June; Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET); Treasury announces 3, 10, & 30-year auctions (9 am ET); EIA Petroleum Inventories (10:30 am ET); Treasury auctions 10-year TIPS (1 pm ET); Consumer Credit for May (3 pm ET).

The FirstAlert(tm) Earnings Calendar showcases A. Schulman Q3 2010 Earnings; Bahrain Islamic Bank Q2 2010 Earnings; Central Security Patrols Co. Q1 2011 Earnings; Fairwood Holdings Ltd. Preliminary 2010 Earnings; Helen of Troy Ltd. Q1 2011 Earnings; Lawson Software, Inc. Q4 2010 Earnings; Nu Horizons Electronic Q1 2011 Earnings; Sandvine Corp. Q2 2010 Earnings; USEN Corp. Q3 2010 Earnings; Velan Inc. Q1 2010 Earnings.

Quote of the Day: "Contemporary criticism only represents the amount of ignorance genius has to contend with." –Percy Bysshe Shelley (08/04/1792 – 07/08/1822), English writer (was married to Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley).

Word of the Day: gizmo \GIZ-moh\, noun: A mechanical device or part whose name is forgotten or unknown; a gadget.

In context: “Why did we have to wait until the end of the twentieth century for this gizmo to see the light of day?” — Paul Auster, Timbuktu

(Gizmo was originally 1940s U.S. Navy and Marine Corps slang, whose source is unknown.)

Today is: SCUD Day (Savor the Comic, Unplug the Drama)

Happy Birthday: 1935 – Steve Lawrence, American entertainer and singer; 1944 – Jai Johanny Johanson, American musician (The Allman Brothers Band); 1952 – Jack Lambert, American football player (Pittsburgh Steelers); 1958 – Tzipi Livni, Israeli politician; 1964 – Alexei Gusarov, Russian ice hockey player; # 1968 – Akio Suyama, Japanese seiyu; 1972 – Sourav Ganguly, Former Captain of Indian Cricket Team; 1978 – Eve Myles, Welsh Actress; 1983 – Jaroslav Janiš, Czech racing car driver; 1992 – Benjamin Grosvenor, British pianist.

Today in History: 1497 – Vasco da Gama sets sail on first direct European voyage to India; 1663 – Charles II of England grants John Clarke a Royal Charter to Rhode Island; 1776 – The Declaration of Independence is read aloud in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and the Liberty Bell is rung; 1859 – King Charles XV/Carl IV accedes to the throne of Sweden-Norway; 1889 – The first issue of the Wall Street Journal is published; 1932 – The Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches its lowest level of the Great Depression, bottoming out at 41.22; 1969 – IBM CICS is made generally available for the 360 mainframe computer; 1992 – Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe creates the office of High Commissioner on National Minorities; 2007 – Boeing unveiled its first 787 in a roll-out ceremony at its Everett assembly factory.

Disclosure: Frank Kollar’s Fibtimer.com ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF.

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