June 7, 2010 (FinancialWire) (Investrend Information Syndicate) (Via Brewer Futures Group) (Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=cmmtry for all current commentaries.) — Friday the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (NYSE: UGL) closed up 0.93% per share on volume of 291,200 shares, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) closed up 1.04% per share on volume of 1.65 million shares, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) closed down 3.25% per share on volume of 784,000 shares, and the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: OIL) closed down 4.85% per share on volume of 1.1 million shares. FinancialWire(tm) contributor, Brewer Futures Group, provides some related perspective and insight regarding the outlook for the commodities markets:

Although U.S. equity markets have recovered their overnight losses, the fundamentals which influenced the market on Friday are likely to have a lingering affect on the stock markets today. Traders will be looking for bargains today and will be largely influenced by the action in the Euro especially since this currency has reached an extremely oversold condition.

A late session surge in Europe is triggering a short-covering rally in the Euro and British Pound ahead of the U.S. opening. The Euro was down sharply overnight as traders reacted to Friday’s bearish U.S. jobs data and the news that Hungary is the latest candidate for sovereign debt issues.

Over the week-end the Group of 20 major economic powers concluded their meeting by issuing a more cautious outlook for global growth. Their primary concerns were the European debt crisis and the possibility that European fiscal consolidation will result in muted global growth. While the European and commodity-linked currencies suffered, the Japanese Yen benefitted from a strong surge in flight-to-safety buying.

Shortly before the U.S. opening, the Dollar is starting to see some pressure. U.S. equity markets have turned positive, driving down the Greenback versus the Euro, British Pound and the riskier Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. Increased appetite for risk is also pressuring the Japanese Yen. This action ahead of the New York opening appears to be shortcovering and only proves that the movement in the Dollar will be sensitive to risk sentiment today.

U.S. stock indices plunged sharply lower before the opening on Friday propelled by a quick drop in the Euro and a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report. The drop in the Euro triggered a flight to safety rally into the U.S. Dollar while the employment report raised concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and the possibility that corporate profits may take a hit if the global economy slows down.

The main trend turned back down in the June E-mini S&P 500 when the market crossed the last main bottom at 1067.25 before settling slightly better than a minor Fibonacci retracement level at 1067.25. Further weakness in the Euro is likely to push this market lower towards the last major swing bottom at 1036.75.

The loss was substantial in the June E-mini NASDAQ but the market still managed to hold a test of the minor retracement zone at 1829.50 to 1811.75. The Dow closed sharply lower and further downside action was indicated by the close under the retracement zone at 10032 to 9967.

The whippy action U.S. equity markets overnight is sending a mixed signal to September Treasury Bond traders this morning. On Friday, the T-Bonds and T-Notes rallied sharply higher as traders left higher risk assets for the safety of the Treasury markets. Technically this market is testing the retracement zone created by the last minor swing down at 126’05 to 121’06. This zone is at 123’22 to 124’08. The close over the high end of this retracement zone will indicate that investors are expected further downside action in the equity markets.

Selling pressure dominated the September Crude Oil market overnight and on Friday. This market is still in a downtrend and currently testing a minor retracement zone at 73.64 to 72.69. Increased aversion to risk is encouraging traders to abandon higher risk assets, putting pressure on the crude oil complex. This scenario is likely to continue this week if the Euro falls substantially again and equity markets remain weak. The weaker than expected jobs data report could be a sign that the global economic recovery is stalling. This will hurt demand for crude oil.

August Gold is trading mixed in limited trading this morning after finishing higher on Friday. Gold was under pressure early in the session on Friday as the Dollar strengthened following the release of the weaker-than-expected jobs report.

After hitting its low about 90 minutes after the report, speculators began to buy gold in anticipation of serious problems developing in the Euro Zone. Investors renewed their buying interest on concerns that the acceleration of fiscal problems in the Europe may lead to the withdrawal of one or more members of the European Union or a collapse in the single currency.

The overnight action indicates indecision. Investors can’t seem to decide whether to rally because of the weaker Dollar or break because Euro Zone tensions seem to be easing a bit.

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The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Last session’s Most Actives showed 3 advancers versus 22 decliners. The complete chart for today’s Money Index is accessible via Investrend’s dedicated Stock Smart NYSE-AMEX-NASDAQ Summary webpage (at http://www.investrend.com/fa-index-2010-06-04), and real-time, streaming research for all Money Index companies is available via the Investrend Research Syndicate (at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ss/html/hpcompany.html).  Last session’s volume Leaders were led by Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C), the SPDRS S&P 500 Trust ETF (AMEX: SPY) (and the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ). Last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners making the greatest monetary gains were led by Martek Biosciences Corp. (NASDAQ: MATK), China Medical Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMED) and RCM Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: RCMT). Last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers taking the greatest monetary losses were led by the Direxion Daily Financial Bull ETF (AMEX: FAS), Blyth, Inc. (NYSE: BTH) and the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull ETF (NYSE: TNA).

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills (11:30 am ET) and Consumer Credit for April (3 pm ET).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases BLC, COHR, ESIO, MHP at the Noble Financial Equity Conference; EAT, BKC at at the Goldman Sachs Lodging, Gaming, Restaurant and Leisure Conference; IILG at the NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference; RZ, KWK, WRES, CHK at the RBC Capital Markets Global Energy & Power Conference.

Quote of the Day: "Theories are always very thin and insubstantial, experience only is tangible." –Hosea Ballou (04/30/1771 – 06/07/1852), US theologian.

Word of the Day: bathos \BEY-thos\, noun: 1. Triteness or triviality in style. 2. A ludicrous descent from the exalted or lofty to the commonplace; anticlimax. 3. Insincere pathos; sentimentality; mawkishness. (Bathos was introduced into English by Alexander Pope in his satirical 1727 essay, “Peri Bathous, Or the Art of Sinking in Poetry”.)

Today is: Daniel Boone Day

Happy Birthday: 1954 – Louise Erdrich, American author; 1969 – Prince Joachim of Denmark; 1981 – Anna Kournikova, Russian tennis player.

Today in History: 1893 – Gandhi's first act of civil disobedience; 1965 – The Supreme Court of the United States decides on Griswold v. Connecticut, effectively legalizing the use of contraception by married couples; 1982 – Priscilla Presley opens Graceland to the public; the bathroom where Elvis Presley died five years earlier is kept off-limits; 2006 – British Houses of Parliament temporarily shut down due to anthrax alert.

Source for today’s commentary: Courtesy of Brewer Futures Group; For more information, content and/or a preferred introduction to Brewer Investment Group, LLC and/or Brewer Futures Group, LLC, contact Investrend Communications via resources@investrend.com with “Brewer” in the subject line.

Streaming Research for companies and funds mentioned in FinancialWire(tm) news is available via the Investrend Research Syndicate, courtesy of Stock Smart (at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ss/html/hpcompany.html).

Brewer Futures Group advises that futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Brewer Futures Group, LLC, Brewer Investment Group, LLC, or their subsidiaries and affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in the above article is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. For more information, content and/or a preferred introduction to Brewer Investment Group, LLC and/or Brewer Futures Group, LLC, contact Investrend Communications via resources@investrend.com with “Brewer” in the subject line.

FirstAlert(tm), published exclusively by FinancialWire(tm), was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information. The opinions expressed in FirstAlert(tm) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend or of FinancialWire(tm).

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